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International Journal of Science, Strategic Management and Technology

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S.U.R.A.J. (SOLAR UTILITY & RADIANCE ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT): LOCALIZED ML-BASED FORECASTING FOR DIVERSE INDIAN CLIMATES

AUTHORS:
Pragati Rajput
Yashika Soni
Khushi Tamrakar
Manavi Pardhi
Mentor
Sweta Kriplanil
Affiliation
Department of Computer Science & Engineering,Shri Ram Institute of Technology, RGPV,Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh, India
CC BY 4.0 License:
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract

Accurate prediction of daily solar irradiance is critical for smart grid stability, energy storage planning, and photovoltaic system optimization. Existing forecasting models are predominantly trained on single geographic regions, limiting their applicability across India's climatically diverse landscape. This paper presents S.U.R.A.J. (Solar Utility & Radiance Analytical Judgment), a machine-learning-based solar energy forecasting system validated across six geographically and climatically distinct Indian cities: Jabalpur, Bhopal, Delhi, Mumbai, Jaipur, and Ladakh — representing tropical, semi-arid, arid, coastal, and cold-arid climate zones. The system employs an 11-step reproducible data pipeline utilizing five years (2019–2023) of daily meteorological observations acquired from the NASA POWER satellite API, comprising 1,826 data points per city. A Random Forest Regressor is independently trained for each city using 17 engineered features, including cyclical temporal encodings, autoregressive lag variables (Solar_Lag_1, Solar_Lag_7), and rolling statistical features (Solar_Roll7, Solar_Roll30), applied to an 80/20 chronological train-test split. City-specific models achieve R² scores ranging from 0.830 (Ladakh, cold-arid) to 0.891 (Mumbai, coastal), with Mean Absolute Errors of 0.337–0.524 MJ/m², substantially outperforming the naive persistence baseline across all locations. Feature importance analysis consistently identifies cloud fraction and previous-day irradiance as the dominant predictors of daily solar output. The trained models are deployed through a Flask REST API connected to an interactive web dashboard, enabling real-time solar irradiance simulation via adjustable environmental controls. Results confirm that climate-specific ensemble modeling with engineered temporal features produces reliable, interpretable, and operationally deployable solar forecasts for diverse Indian cities.

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Rajput, P., Soni, Y., Tamrakar, K. & Pardhi, M. (2026). S.U.R.A.J. (Solar Utility & Radiance Analytical Judgment): Localized ML-Based Forecasting for Diverse Indian Climates. International Journal of Science, Strategic Management and Technology, 02(05). https://doi.org/10.55041/ijsmt.v2i5.276

Rajput, Pragati, et al.. "S.U.R.A.J. (Solar Utility & Radiance Analytical Judgment): Localized ML-Based Forecasting for Diverse Indian Climates." International Journal of Science, Strategic Management and Technology, vol. 02, no. 05, 2026, pp. . doi:https://doi.org/10.55041/ijsmt.v2i5.276.

Rajput, Pragati,Yashika Soni,Khushi Tamrakar, and Manavi Pardhi. "S.U.R.A.J. (Solar Utility & Radiance Analytical Judgment): Localized ML-Based Forecasting for Diverse Indian Climates." International Journal of Science, Strategic Management and Technology 02, no. 05 (2026). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.55041/ijsmt.v2i5.276.

References

[1] M. K. Behera et al., "Solar Radiation Forecasting: A Systematic Meta-Review of Current Methods and Emerging Trends," Energies, vol. 17, no. 13, p. 3156, Jun. 2024.


[2] A. Sharma and A. Kakkar, "Forecasting daily global solar irradiance generation using machine learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 82, pp. 2216–2232, 2018.


[3] G. E. P. Box, G. M. Jenkins, G. C. Reinsel, and G. M. Ljung, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 5th ed. Hoboken, NJ, USA: Wiley, 2015.


[4] A. Mellit and A. M. Pavan, "A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy," Solar Energy, vol. 84, no. 5, pp. 807–821, 2010.


[5] L. Breiman, "Random Forests," Machine Learning, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 5–32, 2001.


[6] C. Voyant et al., "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, vol. 105, pp. 569–582, 2017.


[7] P. W. Stackhouse et al., "The NASA POWER Project: New Methods and Expanded Science Products," in Proc. ISES Solar World Congress, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2018.


[8] F. Pedregosa et al., "Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python," Journal of Machine Learning Research, vol. 12, pp. 2825–2830, 2011.


[9] NASA, "POWER Data Access Viewer and API Documentation," NASA Langley Research Center, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://power.larc.nasa.gov/ . Project code: https://github.com/Minilikes/Suraj.git


[10] Government of India, "National Solar Mission," Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://mnre.gov.in/

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This article has undergone plagiarism screening and double-blind peer review. Editorial policies have been followed. Authors retain copyright under CC BY-NC 4.0 license. The research complies with ethical standards and institutional guidelines.
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